President Trump’s tariff plan is ushering in a period of historic uncertainty and stock market volatility. Wall Street Journal columnist Jason Zweig offers up a thoughtful approach to such turbulent times.  


Trump Just Shredded the Economic Playbook. Here Are Your Next Investing Moves.

Thinking clearly right now is harder—but also more important—than ever.

“This time is different.”

As the great investor Sir John Templeton liked to say, those are among the costliest words in investing.

“This time isn’t different” can be costly, too.

With President Trump seeking to overturn decades of globalization and override the world’s trading rules, markets are in turmoil for good reason. You’d be foolish to think nothing has changed, and you can’t just wish the turbulence away.

To prevail over this chaos, you must think clearly at a time when many investors—and policymakers—are an emotional mess.

Intense uncertainty automatically triggers fear and stress in the human brain, infusing our bodies with the ancient fight-or-flight response that is essential to survival. Fear fixates our attention on the negative, makes us acutely sensitive to social signals, impedes our working memory and impairs our ability to think flexibly.

An event unprecedented in most investors’ lifetimes, like Trump’s barrage of tariffs, intensifies our fear and stress. “No one’s seen this before, so no one knows how to react to it,” says Elizabeth Phelps, a neuroscientist at Harvard University who studies emotion and decision-making.

Normally, investors can consult data from the past to put a crashing market in perspective and calm their fears. But nothing like Trump’s trade war has happened in nearly a century. “This means,” says Phelps, that today’s investors “have no experience to rely on to put our minds at ease.”

That’s why thinking clearly right now is harder—but also more important—than ever.

 

The first step: Stop obsessing about the damage to your portfolio. Instead, imagine a simple pyramid, says Jonathan Treussard of Treussard Capital Management in Newport Beach, Calif. The pyramid has three layers, each representing a different likelihood of regret.

In the bottom layer are decisions you can take now that you are extremely unlikely to regret later.

The second layer consists of actions that you might later feel some regret over.

The third is made up of drastic decisions that are difficult if not impossible to reverse—making them prime candidates for intense regret down the road.

In the pyramid’s bottom layer are actions like tightening your family’s budget; spending less and saving more will help you weather a market storm. You can also look into tax-loss harvesting. Do you own stocks or funds that suddenly are worth less than you paid for them? Check with your tax adviser to see whether you can turn them into a tax loss. By selling and putting the proceeds into a low-cost, diversified fund, you can cut your tax bill, lower your risk and maintain your exposure to stocks at today’s newly cheaper prices.

In the second layer—actions you might someday regret, at least a little—are somewhat bigger decisions.

Consider taking your stock or fund dividends as cash rather than reinvesting in more shares; that extra liquidity can give you a psychological cushion against further losses.

If the S&P 500’s drop has you spooked, move some money into international stocks or into bonds—particularly Treasury inflation-protected securities, which still offer decent value even though their prices have risen recently. You can also rebalance, selling some of whatever has risen while buying more of whatever has fallen.

Only after you’ve exhausted the bottom and second layers of the pyramid, says Treussard, should you even consider the top layer—which consists of risky decisions like dumping all your stocks or betting big on a rebound.

The power of this decision pyramid is that if you stick to the bottom two layers, you don’t have to be right about how Trump’s trade war will ultimately play out.

Making the easiest decisions first means you minimize your future regret. Because you can take plenty of simple actions in the bottom two layers of the pyramid, you will feel less need to grapple with the much more difficult—and potentially regrettable—decisions at its apex.

In short, “we can and should engage in extreme thinking,” says Treussard. “We should not engage in extreme acting.”

Stacks of shipping containers at the Port of Baltimore earlier this week. Photo: Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images

 

That’s especially true because anything can happen from here.

Trust in the system of global trade has been shattered and will require pain and patience to repair. Inflation, recession or worse could result. But positive surprises could also materialize.

If you overhaul your entire portfolio in response, you aren’t just acting as if you know what the market is going to do next, which is close to impossible. You’re also acting as if you know what Donald Trump is going to do next—which is impossible.

While nothing is certain in the short term, a few things are highly likely in the longer term.

“Ultimately the costs of the tariffs will be recognized and they will be rescinded,” says Bryan Taylor, chief economist at Finaeon, a research firm in Irvine, Calif., that compiles and analyzes centuries of financial data.

“When you look at the past,” he adds, “you see that eventually markets do recover, because over time logic prevails.”

Mark Higgins is a financial adviser at IFA Institutional and author of “Investing in U.S. Financial History,” a book that chronicles markets from 1790 to the present.

“You think markets are crazy today, and they are,” he says. “But if you thought like a 230-year-old, all this would be a lot less surprising.” Most investors today, he says, “would be shocked by how much more of a circus this country’s financial markets have been in the past.”

Higgins adds, “Every generation thinks everything will fall apart. This will be painful, but we will get through it.”

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